The athletic commissions from two states have approved the use and studied the impact of open scoring in mixed martial arts (MMA) with two key limitations: (1) they only observe fight outcomes and (2) promoters voluntarily opt in to open scoring treatment status. This paper proposes an analysis of open scoring in the observational setting of Ultimate Fighting Championship events where more granular measures of fighter performance are available. Utilizing known judge scorecards, a model to proxy the level of certainty in the bout outcome heading into the third round of each fight, and detailed fighter performance statistics, this paper examines the effect of knowledge of the likely outcome on fighter behavior in the last round of an MMA fight. Concerns that fighters with the lead will stop engaging or try to "coast" to victory appear unwarranted. Results instead suggest that trailing fighters slightly adjust their behavior, moving away from takedowns and late-stage submission attempts.
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