Develop a framework to measure the extent to which countries meet their performance expectations at major sporting events using economists, experts, and fan knowledge. Method Long-term expectations based on socioeconomic potential are calculated using sport-agnostic econometric modeling. Short-term expectations based on performance and competitiveness are calculated using betting odds, which incorporate both expert knowledge and "wisdom of the crowd." Robust statistics based on the chi-squared distribution are used to measure the extent to which countries` expectations are met. Our method is tested using real data from the Rio 2016 Summer Olympic Games. Results Twelve countries over- or underperformed in terms of meeting either long- or short-term expectations. Conclusions Uzbekistan was the only country that exceeded both long- and short-term expectations.
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