The most common injury in professional football is an overuse injury to the lower limb. A significant external risk factor of this injury is the mismanagement of training and match loads. The aim of the current study was to examine the predictability of overuse injuries in professional youth soccer players using volume and intensity variables derived from Global Positioning Systems. A total of 41 players (age: 17.8 ± 1.1 years) training and match loads were assessed. These external loads were measured over 2 competitive seasons for every training session and match for each individual. A linear regression was used to test the predictability of the injury based on load, which were grouped using loading groups calculated from squad weekly averages. The load groupings assigned were: low load = 1 SD below the squad mean score; normal load = ±1 SD from the squad mean; high load = 1 SD above squad mean. The analysis demonstrated that total distance significantly predicted overuse injury incidence rates (F 1,39 = 6.482, p = 0.015), whereas high-speed running meters could not (F 1,39 = 1.003, p = 0.323). This study demonstrated that distance covered in training and matches can impact on the incidence of overuse injury in youth soccer players. Coaches should seek to monitor player training loads and incorporate this metric into their decision making for protecting players from overuse injury.
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