The debate about whether world-level success as a junior athlete is necessary for world-level success as a senior regularly engages coaches, but the discussion is usually based on anecdotal evidence. This study retrospectively tracked the performances of elite senior athletes as they developed (Part A) and prospectively analysed the transition of medallists at the IAAF World Junior Championships through to their senior performances (Part B). Results from Part A showed that of the World Championships in Athletics and Olympic Games gold medallists who had previously competed at an IAAF World Junior Championships, 80% were finalists at the junior level. This would support the notion that success as a junior is prerequisite for world-level success as a senior. However, a contrasting picture emerges from Part B, which shows that over a half (54%) of junior medallists did not go on to compete at the top global events and only 34% of junior medallist go on to be a finalist at the global level. Following their detailed presentation of the results, authors discuss the implications for maximising the conversion of junior talents to senior performers and reducing attrition and then make suggestions for further research.
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