Data from the Marathon's best performances and world record series have been extensively studied. In this analysis I apply the model proposed by RL Smith to examine the sequence of yearly best performances defined as annual speed maxima2 - as proposed by HJ Grubb. Speed is the natural scale to compare performance at different distances, as 'we know that it will take at least twice as long to run twice as far', so the forecasts presented here may be directly related to other athletic events.
© Copyright 2014 Significance. Wiley - Royal Statistical Society. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.