Purpose Peak power output (W_peak) in an incremental exercise test (EXT) is considered an important predictor of performance for cyclists. However, W_peak is protocol dependent. The purpose of this study was to model the effect of EXT design on W_peak. Methods An adapted version of a previously developed mathematical model was used. For the purpose of validity testing, we compared predicted W_peak differences (predicted delta-W_peak) with actual delta-W_peak found in sports science literature. Results The model quantified delta-W_peak between 36 EXT designs with stage durations in the range 1-5 min and increments in the range 10-50 W. Predicted delta-W_peak and actual delta-W_peak across a wide range of performance levels of cyclists were in good agreement. Depending on the specific combination of increment and stage duration, W_peak may be widely different or equivalent. A minimum difference in increment (5 W) or in stage duration (1 min) already results in significantly different W_peak. In EXTs having the same ratio between increment and stage duration, W_peak in the EXT with the shortest stage duration or the greatest increment is significantly higher. Tests combining 15 W, 25 W or 40 W increments with 2, 3 and 4 min stage durations, respectively, are `special` in that their W_peak approximates the power output associated with maximal oxygen uptake (P-VO2max). Conclusions The modeling results allow comparison of W_peak between widely different EXT designs. Absolute performance level does not affect delta-W_peak. W_peak15/2, W_peak25/3 and W_peak40/4 constitute a practical physiologic reference for performance diagnostics and exercise intensity prescription.
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