INTRODUCTION: Multiple regression analysis is a common analytical tool for describing combinations of physiological, anthropomorphic, and demographic characteristics most strongly associated with successful sports performance. The purpose of the present study was to use this analytical technique to determine the best combination of laboratory lest measures for predicting classic and skate skiing performance in junior and collegiate skiers. METHOD: Junior and college-aged skiers (n=35; Mean±SD, Range: 19±2, 16-24 yrs) competed in one or more of four local ski races within a 2-week period in 2009: Classic sprint (1450 m; n=14), classic distance (5 for women, 10 km for men; n=30), skate sprint (1200 m; n=23), and skate distance (10 km for women, 15 km for men; n=24). Each skier also performed a maximal treadmill test to exhaustion (walk/striding with ski poles) to measure maximal oxygen uptake (VO2MAX), lactate threshold, and time to exhaustion. Additional lab tests included 10-sec and 60-sec tests of upper body power (UBP, W), as well as several lower body power (LBP) tests using a timing mat (1-jump, 4-jump, 60-jump vertical jump tests). Lab test and descriptive (e.g., age, gender) variables were used as potential predictors of average speed (m/sec) computed for all race results. Standard step-forward multiple regression procedures were used to determine the combination of UBP, LBP, and treadmill variables that best explained the observed variance in ski performance using overall regression alpha of 0.01. RESULTS & DISCUSSION: Measures of relative VO2MAX (RVO2MAX, ml/kg/min), UBP10 power output (UBP10-P) or poling cadence (UBP10-C), and a measure of LBP (average jump height, JH) were consistently significant in the regression models (Table 1). The standardized beta coefficients indicated that RVO2MAX was the single strongest predictor for all races with UBP and LBP variables being moderate (UBP10-P, 4-jump and 60-jump JH) to weak predictors (UBP10-C). CONCLUSION: The combined measures from a ski-specific treadmill lest to exhaustion, as well as DBF and LBP testing can explain 76-90% of classic and skate ski performance variability (both sprint and distance events) for older junior and collegiate skiers. This analysis supports the use of multiple test measures on a regular basis to track changes in ski performance potential for this population of competitive skiers.
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