INTRODUCTION: In order to further the analysis of judo match and quantify competitive demands, it is important to estimate the influence of some match parameters [1], [2]. The purpose of the study was to develop a technical-tactical model of judo match in order to determine the probability of the outcome based on any given score throughout the match duration. METHODS: We collected and tagged 1,291 male and female judo matches from the 2017 international judo circuit. We analyzed 13,055 combat sequences with 81 different score combinations. In order to determine the probability of a fight`s outcome from the score, we used a statistical analysis based on the multi-state model derived from the Markov process. A transition matrix provided an overview of the overall evolution of the 81 states in which a match could exist. RESULTS: The probability of completing a match increases as the score and time progress. After two penalties, there is a 62% probability that the match will end in the next state. The probability of winning through the different mechanisms changes as the scores progress over time, at 0-0 it is through ippon (26%) while at 2-0 it is through a difference in points at the end of time (41%). CONCLUSION: These initial results of the fighting patterns within competitions can help analysts and coaches understand and improve athletes tactical performance. Further analysis with additional co-variates (weight categories, round of competition, etc..) is necessary to better understand the evolution of specific match.
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