4018571

Use of attack rate as a predictor of victory in Olympic level judo

(Die Angriffshäufigkeit als Wert zur Vorhersage der Siegwahrscheinlichkeit im Hochleistungsjudo)

This study has identified that attack rate can be used to make gross predictions about the outcome of a Judo fight, further research is required to confirm this. Further research should also include examination of attack rate over time and the relationship to tactics and strategy in Judo fights. Specifically, researchis indicated that examines how attack rates alter based on which player leads on points during a match. Research needs to identify if a Judo player once establishing a lead on points has a change in attack rate and if their opponent increases or decreases their attack rate. Related research is also needed to examine the relationship between the awarding of penalties by the referee and the effect on attack rates of both players. Given the importance of penalties in Judo fights, research could be conducted to determine what percentage of Judo fights are won on penalties and not by positive player action. Research into the development of a standard software system to notate Judo needs to be conducted. The existing work of Hughes, McDonald and Michel (1988; 2006; 2008) could along with the software created for this study be examined to define the important features required. Perhaps the most important area of research required is in the area of performance indicators for Judo. Outside of the sport of Judo (as discussed in the literature review of this study), examination of probabilities and predicting results is more common and predictions are becoming more accurate (Clarke et al., 2008; Gray & Le, 2002; Newton & Keller, 2005; Winkler, 1971; Yelas & Clarke, 2004). To create an accurate model for predicting the outcome of Judo fights, research is required into the performance indicators that predict victory in Judo. This study suggests that attack rate is a gross indicator, further research looking at Judo more finely may provide more fine predictions. For example, McDonald (2006) interviewed a number of world leading Judo coaches and identified a number of elements of the Judo fight that they believed were important (for example who establishes the dominant grip). Research into quantifying dominance of grip could be used to then study Judo fights and look for a correlation between grip dominance and victory (or grip dominance and attack rate). Research into the relationship between attack rate and awarding of penalties should be conducted. This research could be used to test the hypothesis that penalties are being awarded to players that do not attack frequently enough (and what "enough" is statistically). It might also be used to explore the theory that by increasing attack rate, players can prevent penalties and win more fights. Further research should be conducted to establish valid criteria for defining an "effective non-scoring attack" and "ineffective non-scoring attack". This would reduce the amount of subjectivity involved in collecting data in this area. This study suggests that players who attack most in the earlier rounds may be more likely to go on to be medallists; this hypothesis could be explored further in future research.
© Copyright 2009 Veröffentlicht von University of Bath, Department of Education. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Bibliographische Detailangaben
Schlagworte:
Notationen:Trainingswissenschaft Kampfsportarten
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Bath University of Bath, Department of Education 2009
Ausgabe:Bath: University of Bath (Hrsg.)
Online-Zugang:http://www.judocoach.com/2009research/LanceWicks-ED30391.pdf
Seiten:45
Dokumentenarten:Diplomarbeit
Level:hoch