Developmental trend analysis of the best sports results is important not only for determination of relations between sport achievements and factors that produce them, but also for prognosis of future results. OGs are probably the most important world competition for every sportsperson where actual values of the applied sport preparation training methods and contents are tested. Zaciorski (1973) analysed the dynamics of development and prognosis of results in athletics. The obtained trends revealed that each achievement spring coincided with changes in methodology of training. Vazni (1978) observed result trends in athletics over the period 1951-1974. Larger improvements of results were registered for the Olympic years - a consequence of the Olympic-cycle periodisation of training. The aim of the study was to determine developmental trends of average shot put results achieved by male putters at the final competitions of the Olympic games in the period 1896-2000 and to predict probable future results. Methods The sample of subjects consisted of shot putters participants of the Olympic games' shot put finals (1896-2000). The variable is an athletics event - shot put. The data were taken from "The Complete Book of the Olympics" (Wallechinsky, 2000) and processed by the statistical software package STATISTICA. Linear regression analysis from the Nonlinear Estimation module was used to determine the trend. The employed linear model of regression function approximates well (95.06% of the variance explained) the developmental trend of the average shot put OG' results. However, the model gives quite an unreal prognosis for the oncoming 2004 Olympic Games. The finding is particularly obvious from the Fig. 1 where considerable deviations of average shot put results from the regression line are registered for the last three Olympic games. Can it be hypothesized from the finding that the upper limits of human capacity for expanding the shot putting distances have been reached? Nevertheless, every coach needs a prognosis of probable future sports results in order to programme sport preparation for their trainees properly. If a 2004 Olympic medal is a goal, it is indispensable to have at least an approximation of the expected results. On the basis of such a prognosis, coaches can select, first, a model of a shot putter which has a potential for desired sport achievements, and, second, adequate preparation training methods and contents to accomplish it.
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