Purpose: To investigate the relationship between the training load (TL = rate of perceived exertion × training time) and wellness index (WI) in soccer. Methods: The WI and TL data were recorded from 28 subelite players (age = 20.9 [2.4] y; height = 181.0 [5.8] cm; body mass = 72.0 [4.4] kg) throughout the 2017/2018 season. Predictive models were constructed using a supervised machine learning method that predicts the WI according to the planned TL. The validity of our predictive model was assessed by comparing the classification`s accuracy with the one computed from a baseline that randomly assigns a class to an example by respecting the distribution of classes (B1). Results: A higher TL was reported after the games and during match day (MD)-5 and MD-4, while a higher WI was recorded on the following days (MD-6, MD-4, and MD-3, respectively). A significant correlation was reported between daily TL (TLMDi) and WI measured the day after (WIMDi+1) (r = .72, P < .001). Additionally, a similar weekly pattern seems to be repeating itself throughout the season in both TL and WI. Nevertheless, the higher accuracy of ordinal regression (39% [2%]) compared with the results obtained by baseline B1 (21% [1%]) demonstrated that the machine learning approach used in this study can predict the WI according to the TL performed the day before (MD<i). Conclusion: The machine learning technique can be used to predict the WI based on a targeted weekly TL. Such an approach may contribute to enhancing the training-induced adaptations, maximizing the players` readiness and reducing the potential drops in performance associated with poor wellness scores.
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