A coaching change is an extreme, but frequently occurring phenomenon in elite soccer with its impact on team success debatable. The aim of the current study was twofold: (i) to compare team`s performance when coached by new and old coaches; and (ii) to investigate the impact of a coaching change on team`s performance according to coach- and club-related factors. All in-season coaching changes from the 2010-11 to 2017-18 seasons within the Spanish, French, English, German and Italian professional leagues were examined. Team performance was assessed as points awarded from match outcome over 1-20 matches prior to and following the coaching change. Four independent variables (coach`s experience, team`s budget, whether the coach had been an elite former player or not, and whether the coach was a novice or not) were included into linear regression modelling. The main results showed that team`s short-term performance was improved significantly with a change to a new coach with this impact declining in the longer term (> 10 matches). Specifically, the number of points (1.15-1.32 vs. 0.37-1.03, p < 0.05) and the moving average of points (1.19-1.31 vs. 0.37-1.04, p < 0.05) awarded per match were significantly greater after the coaching change. Further, the winning effect due to the new coach was independent of coach-related factors such as coaching experience or the new coach being a former elite player. A critical organisational decision to change coaches may provide an essential stimulus for future team success in elite soccer.
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