In mixed martial arts, punches commonly lead to a knockout (KO) or technical knockout (TKO), though factors influencing such punches are unclear. This study assessed how differences in height, reach, and combined difference (height + reach) influence fight-ending punches. We analysed 264 Ultimate Fighting Championship contests that concluded with a KO/TKO from hooks, straights, uppercuts, or overhand punches. Three multinomial logistic regression analyses assessed the influence of (a) reach, (b) height and (c) combined difference on likelihood of punch type, with overhand punches as the reference category. Pairwise comparisons for punch type were conducted, and probability differences were compared across the lower, middle, and highest point difference for reach (-20, 0, + 20 cm), height (-20, + 10, + 40 cm), and combined (-50, 0, + 50 cm). The punches with the highest frequency were hooks (51%) and straights (35%). For all models, the straight punch was more likely than the overhand (odds ratio: 1.06-1.10, p < 0.05). At 0 cm and 20 cm reach difference, the punch probability differences for straight and uppercut punches compared to uppercut and overhand was between 27-47% (p < 0.05). Similar findings were observed at +10 cm height difference, but at height +40 cm straights were 76% more likely than uppercuts and overhands (p < 0.05) for bouts that concluded with a KO/TKO. The combined model showed similar results to the reach model findings. These results can help inform coaches and fighters to prepare both offensive and defensive tactics by providing information on the most likely fight-ending punch depending on their specific matchups.
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