Purpose There is no convincing evidence for the idea that a high power output at the maximal lactate steady state (PO_MLSS) and a high fraction of VO2max at MLSS (%VO2_MLSS) are decisive for endurance performance. We tested the hypotheses that (1) %VO2_MLSS is positively correlated with the ability to sustain a high fraction of VO2max for a given competition duration (%VO2_TT); (2) %VO2_MLSS improves the prediction of the average power output of a time trial (PO_TT) in addition to VO2max and gross efficiency (GE); (3) PO_MLSS improves the prediction of PO_TT in addition to VO2max and GE. Methods Twenty-one recreationally active participants performed stepwise incremental tests on the first and final testing day to measure GE and check for potential test-related training effects in terms of changes in the minimal lactate equivalent power output (deltaPO_LEmin), 30-min constant load tests to determine MLSS, a ramp test and verification bout for VO2max, and 20-min time trials for %VO2_TT and PO_TT. Hypothesis 1 was tested via bivariate and partial correlations between %VO2_MLSS and %VO2_TT. Multiple regression models with VO2max, GE, deltaPO_LEmin, and %VO2_MLSS (Hypothesis 2) or PO_MLSS instead of %VO2_MLSS (Hypothesis 3), respectively, as predictors, and PO_TT as the dependent variable were used to test the hypotheses. Results %VO2_MLSS was not correlated with %VO2_TT (r = 0.17, p = 0.583). Neither %VO2_MLSS (p = 0.424) nor PO_MLSS (p = 0.208) did improve the prediction of PO_TT in addition to VO2max and GE. Conclusion These results challenge the assumption that PO_MLSS or %VO2_MLSS are independent predictors of supra-MLSS PO_TT and %VO2_TT.
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