Objective: The predictive power of expert knowledge and econometric modeling is analyzed using predictions of results at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympic Games. Method: Forecasts by five sport experts and three sport-agnostic economists are compared at the country level by medal color and by sport. Success ratios and correlation coefficients are used to make these comparisons. Results: Experts beat economists, although both indicators are always above 75 percent at the country level and 60 percent at the medal-color and sport levels. Indicators are below 40 percent when predicting individual winners and 20 percent when predicting athlete and medal color. Conclusions: Expert predictions can help bettors. Econometric models can help design long-term sport policies.
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