Background: In order to promote junior athletes with the highest probability of winning medals in Olympic Games or World Championships, sport associations and coaches have a vested interest in evaluating the athletic potential of the individual athlete based on performance benchmarks. The expertise approach of talent research focuses retrospectively on the development and practice of experts compared to less successful athletes (Ericsson et al., 1993). The purpose of this study was to quantify the performance level and the annual increase of male expert shot-putters at various points in time in order to set benchmarks for junior athletes. Methods: Time series consisted of sequences of season best results and the competition performance of all male shot-putters who competed in Senior World Championships and/or Olympic Games since 1999 (N = 77). Using one-way ANOVA group differences in performance and annual improvement between medalists (rank 1-3), finalists (rank 4-12) and participants (rank >12) were analyzed at different ages. Elite athletes who were not successful or did not compete in junior age were not included in the analysis. Therefore, group differences were also calculated for lead variables in the years prior to the main competition. Results: Beginning at the age of 22 or five years before competitions, medalists, finalists and participants significantly differ in throwing distance and the difference becomes even greater in higher ages. The absolute and relative annual improvement is higher in medalists (0.25 ± 0.10 m) than in finalists (0.20 ± 0.12 m) and participants (0.15 ± 0.10 m). Top-athletes are able to set seasonal bests significantly closer to the major competition and the difference to the seasonal best is significantly smaller. Discussion and Conclusions: Male shot-putters do not develop their athletic performance linearly with their chronological age. Some top athletes, such as D. Armstrong or R. Hoffa, reached the top-level in adult years. Performance in junior competitions is not an appropriate indicator of talent potential. Our results show that the time lag in advance to major events and the corresponding improvement of performance values serve much better for benchmarking junior athletes. Further research, including the level of performance determinants, such as physical, technical and psychological abilities, is necessary to evaluate the potential and the progress of junior athletes and to give practical advice to the coaches of young elite athletes.
© Copyright 2014 The 3rd Wingate Congress of Exercise and Sport Sciences. Published by The Wingate Institute for Physical Education and Sport. All rights reserved.