"Which is the best cycle pack to be in?" is an important question when triathletes choose between trying a breakaway, chasing a breakaway, or simply staying put in the peloton. Cycling in a larger pack provides more competition in the running phase but requires less energy, and more competition is of less concern to better triathletes. The best pack to ride in is therefore unclear. We have investigated this problem by analysing international Olympic-distance triathlon races. Split and finish times of 559 female and 770 male triathletes competing in 151 and 154 races of the World Championships, World Cup series, European Championship and Olympic Games between 2000 and 2011 were obtained from triathlon.org. Size of cycle packs was determined from split times at the end of the cycle phase. Percent chances of winning any medal were predicted using a logistic regression model. Predictors in the full factorial model were pack size (solo, 1 cyclist; very small, 2-3 cyclists; small 4-5 cyclists; moderate, 6-10 cyclists; and large, >10 cyclists), order of cycle pack (1st through 6th), and athlete`s running ability (mean run performance time in the year of competition). Total number of athletes in each race was included as an offset, to account for the lower chance of winning with more competitors. Effects were estimated for top athletes with a reasonable chance (10-70%) of winning a medal. A difference between packs in chance of winning a medal was deemed clear if it had acceptable uncertainty (90% confidence interval) in relation to the smallest difference of 10% (one extra medal in 10 races). In the first pack, percent chances of winning in solo through large packs were 56, 66, 62, 49 and 29. In the second pack the corresponding chances were 11, 18, 42, 31 and 20, while in the third they were 35, 40, 5, 13 and 17. Chance of winning dropped dramatically for 4th, 5th and 6th cycling packs. In general, percent differences of >15 between any two packs were clear, allowing the following recommendations… Ending the cycle phase in the first pack is the best strategy for a top triathlete, when the pack has up to five riders. The triathlete should initiate or join any group breaking away from a large or possibly moderate 1st pack. If a pack of this size is 2nd or 3rd, the triathlete should join a breakaway only totalling 4-5 riders. Breaking away from a small second pack is not advisable unless it is to join the first pack. Finally the triathlete should avoid ending the cycle phase in 4th or later packs. This method of analysis has provided useful recommendations, but some outcomes were unclear in spite of a large amount of race data. An analysis of finishing position rather than medal winning should be investigated for possible improvement in the precision of the estimates.
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