Predicting winning times for stages of the 2011 tour de france using an inclined-plane model
Using a modified version of the inclined-plane model I developed to predict winning times for each stage of the Tour de France in the years 2003-05, I present the results of my predicted winning stage times for the 2011 Tour de France. The model incorporates stage profiles, cyclist power input, air drag, and rolling friction. Each stage's predicted winning time was put on my blog the day before a given stage was run. Just one stage prediction was worse than 8% off the actual winning time. Six of the 21 stages were predicted to better than 1% of the actual winning times. The sum of predicted stage-winning times missed the actual sum by 0.5%.
© Copyright 2012 Procedia Engineering. Elsevier. All rights reserved.
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| Notations: | endurance sports technical and natural sciences training science |
| Published in: | Procedia Engineering |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2012
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| Online Access: | http://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2012.04.114 |
| Volume: | 34 |
| Pages: | 670-675 |
| Document types: | article |
| Level: | advanced |