Purpose The study aimed to model rowing in a single scull, considering individual physiological characteristics of rowers, to determine the optimal pacing strategy over 2000 m (current Olympic distance) and 1500 m (future Olympic distance for 2028), as well as the sensitivity of performance to specific physiological factors at these distances. Methods A validated mechanical model of rowing was coupled with an athlete-specific physiological model (digital twin) to determine optimal pacing strategies for two model athletes (a female and a male rower). Energy production was analyzed using both oxidative (VO2peak) and non-oxidative (Enon - ox) sources, using numerical and analytical approaches. Results For the 2000-m distance, the optimal pacing strategy involved a gradual deceleration over the first 1500 m, followed by a final sprint over the last 500 m, similar to current observed trends. For the 1500-m distance, the optimal pacing strategy lacked this final sprint. Reducing the distance increased the proportion of non-oxidative energy by 5%. Sensitivity of performance to VO2peak was consistent across both distances, showing a 1% performance gain for every 3% increase in VO2peak. In contrast, the sensitivity of Enon - ox increased as distance decreased (a 1% performance gain requiring an 11% increase for 2000 m vs a 13% increase for 1500 m in non-oxidative capacity). Conclusions Optimal pacing strategies differ between 2000 and 1500 m, with the latter requiring a less even pace with a faster start and without a final sprint. Sensitivity to VO2peak is consistently higher than that of Enon - ox at both distances, highlighting the critical role of oxidative capacity in rowing performance.
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