Introduction After the COVID-19 pandemic, European football increased allowed substitutions from three to five players per game. While studies have examined its effects on injury risk, player welfare, etc. (e. g., Mota et al., 2020), there is limited research on tactical adaptions and its direct impact on scoreline. This study aims to explore these effects on European leagues, addressing these gaps. Methods This study assesses the new rule`s impact on substitution patterns and the immediate & final effects on scoreline, analysing 10200 games across four European leagues. A Linear Mixed Model was implemented to compare the substitution distribution before and after rule change. We also compared the benefits of substitutions made at different timing and score conditions under the old and new rules. A Difference-in-Differences model, using the Premier League as a control group due to its delayed rule change, identified the causal impact of the rule change on final match outcomes (see Memmert, 2024). Results The new substitution rule led to more frequent (p < .05) and earlier substitutions (p < .05), particularly on half-break, with uniform adaptation across teams (Group Var. < .01). We compared the net goal difference within 15 minutes post-substitution across second-half and found that teams with negative score difference at the time of substitution showed a 56.01% increase after the rule change, while teams with positive score difference experienced a 20.21% decline of this metric. This indicates that trailing teams adopt more aggressive tactics benefit from the additional fresh legs. Additionally, the new rule resulted 0.105 points decrease in the absolute final score difference (p < .05). Discussion The new substitution rule provides teams with greater tactical flexibility, better load management. Consequently, clubs have uniformly adapted to the new allowance, integrating it into their match planning to effectively influence match outcomes. Our findings suggest that at 2nd-half, coaches should consider making substitutions during 61-65 and 71-75 time intervals to get a positive net goal expectation.
© Copyright 2024 15. Symposium der dvs-Sektion "Sportinformatik und Sporttechnologie": Zwischen Geistesakrobatik und praktischer Anwendung: Innovationen in der Sportinformatik und Sporttechnologie - Abstractband. Veröffentlicht von Technische Universität Dortmund. Alle Rechte vorbehalten.