Purpose: To assess the value of monitoring changes in fitness in professional soccer players, using changes in heart rate at submaximal intensity (HR12km/h) over the velocity at a lactate concentration of 4 mmol/L (v4mmol/L). The authors reexamined (1) a range of threshold magnitudes, which may improve detecting substantial individual changes and (2) the agreement between changes in these 2 variables. Methods: On at least 2 occasions during different moments of the season, 97 professional soccer players from Germany (first, second, and fourth division) completed an incremental test to determine HR12km/h and v4mmol/L. Optimal thresholds for changes in HR12km/h and v4mmol/L were assessed, using various methods (eg, smallest worthwhile change + typical error [TE], successive reiterations approach). Agreement between both variable changes was examined for the whole sample (225 comparisons), 4 different subgroups (depending on the moment of the season), and in an individual over 6 years (n = 23 tests). Results: Changes of 4.5% and 6.0% for HR12km/h and v4mmol/L, respectively, were rated as optimal to indicate substantial changes in fitness. Depending on the (sub)groups analyzed, these thresholds yielded 0% to 2% full mismatches, 22% to 38% partial agreements, and 60% to 78% full agreements in terms of fitness change interpretation between both variables. Conclusions: When lactate sampling during incremental tests is not possible, practitioners willing to monitor adult professional soccer players` (Germany; first, second, and fourth division) training status can confidently implement short, 3-minute submaximal runs, with 4.5% changes in HR12km/h being indicative of true substantial fitness changes, with 60% to 78% accuracy. Future studies should investigate the potential role of confounding factors of HR12km/h to improve changes in fitness prediction.
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