Using mean/variance investment theory, we identify the efficient mixed shot type strategy for National Basketball Association (NBA) teams. The proportion of 3-point shots in this mixed strategy closely tracks risk and the change in expected points from 1979-2014. We then extend this approach to an individual team level for both offense and defense. This measures both the risk associated with implementing a mixed strategy (for and against an individual team) and the implied shot type efficiency for offense and defense. It is the latter, shot type efficiency, which predicts winning and winning point differential.
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